Trade-enabling infrastructure across African markets is showing broad improvement, while business confidence and macroeconomic stability are strengthening across the continent
This is according to Issue 5 of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB), which covers Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems. This marks the first time since the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent,” says Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group.
“Together, these 10 markets account for 68% of Sub‑Saharan Africa’s GDP, and the shifts highlighted in Issue 5 of ATB point to a more positive outlook for cross-border commerce on the continent.”
First launched in 2022 and updated annually, the ATB reflects data collected across these 10 markets in 2025 through combined quantitative indicators and firm-level survey insights. It combines a Quantitative Trade Barometer based on three-year averaged macroeconomic indicators and a Survey Trade Barometer based on responses from 2,218 firms, approximately 71% of which are SMEs.
Growth and Confidence
Growth across ATB markets is trending towards 4.3% in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven of the 10 economies and improvements in external debt positions. The business confidence index rose to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions. Commodity strength, particularly in gold, platinum, and copper, has provided a further uplift for exporters and foreign exchange earners.
Accelerating Integration
Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) reached 50%, with firms citing easier movement of goods, wider market access, and industrialisation benefits. Early AfCFTA-enabled shipments demonstrate tangible operational progress.
East Africa emerges as the strongest-performing subregion, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. The ATB attributes this acceleration primarily to policy coordination and trade facilitation reforms across the region. Kenya is playing a central role as a regional integration anchor.
The recent Kenya–Uganda trade reclassification, which treats goods originating in Kenya as intra-regional transfers rather than imports, has reduced administrative friction within the East African Community. In parallel, Kenya and Tanzania’s renewed commitments to remove non-tariff barriers signal improving trade coordination that had previously constrained cross-border flows.
Combined with major corridor upgrades across the Northern and Central transport routes, these reforms are reducing border delays, improving logistics predictability, and strengthening supply-chain reliability. For businesses operating in the region, this translates into lower transaction costs and greater confidence in scaling cross-border operations.
Global Trade Dynamics
Recent shifts in global trade policy, including tariff changes affecting access to the United States, are contributing to declining engagement with US trade partners among firms surveyed in the ATB. At the same time, businesses report increasing engagement with Asian markets, particularly China, citing competitive pricing, product variety, faster response times, and supply-chain reliability as key drivers of sourcing decisions.
Digital Systems Expansion
Digital payments now facilitate 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases, driven by bank-led rails, mobile money integration, and the growing use of the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which enables faster settlement in local currencies and reduces reliance on hard currency intermediaries.
Climate Concerns
Climate-related pressures remain a constraint, with 38% of firms reporting demand shifts due to climate impacts and 32% citing productivity losses, underscoring the need for resilient infrastructure and production systems.
Outlook
Africa’s trade outlook is being reshaped by integration, improved infrastructure, firmer macro fundamentals, and rising business confidence. At the same time, geopolitical developments, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, introduce uncertainty around energy prices and supply chains that could affect trade costs in the near term.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value-chains, and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate,” concludes Myburgh.