Iran has indicated that friendly diplomatic relations with South Africa could potentially grant the country safe passage through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a privilege currently extended to major economies like China and India.
Speaking in Cape Town, Iran’s ambassador to Pretoria, Mansour Shakib Mehr, challenged widespread reports suggesting that the Strait had been fully closed to maritime traffic since the onset of the Middle East conflict on February 28. Instead, he clarified that restrictions primarily apply to vessels linked to the United States and Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet critical passage responsible for transporting approximately 20% of global crude oil originating from the Persian Gulf, remains partially operational under specific conditions. According to Mehr, Iran has continued to permit oil shipments destined for China and India, provided certain requirements are met, a “special arrangement” that could potentially be extended to South Africa.
This development comes as global energy markets grow increasingly unstable. Data from Northern Trust highlights that around 65% of China’s oil demand is met by Persian Gulf suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar, with a notable share also sourced from Iran.
Similarly, India relies on the Gulf for roughly 40% of its crude imports, with about 30% transiting through the Strait. In contrast, South Africa’s oil supply chain is more diversified, with only about 24% sourced from Saudi Arabia, while Nigeria and Angola account for a significant portion of the remainder.
Despite this, South Africa is not insulated from global price shocks.
Refined petroleum products from the Gulf continue to reach South Africa via Port Sultan Qaboos, a route currently unaffected by tensions in the Strait. However, the broader geopolitical climate is already driving price volatility, with projections indicating a potential increase of up to R5 per litre for petrol and R8 for diesel in the coming weeks.
Oil markets reacted sharply on March 19, as Brent crude prices surged following an Israeli strike on the South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas reserve. Iran responded with missile attacks targeting energy infrastructure across Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain.
Particularly impactful were strikes near Riyadh affecting key refineries such as SAMREF and Jubail Industrial City, prompting warnings of further escalation from Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.
Since the conflict began, oil prices have surged by approximately 55%, underscoring the fragility of global energy markets.
Johan Els, chief group economist at PSG Financial Services, has warned that the situation remains highly precarious. While he emphasised the urgent need for South Africa to develop additional oil capacity, he cautioned that such measures represent a long-term solution rather than immediate relief.
Even if Iran extends safe passage to South African-linked tankers, the gesture is unlikely to offset the immediate economic strain caused by surging global oil prices. For consumers already bracing for steep fuel increases ahead of the Easter period, the most effective relief would come from a swift de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.